Date: Tuesday, 10th February 2026
Race: Join Racing TV Now Handicap Hurdle (Class 4)
Conditions: 3m ½f, Soft
If you are looking for flash and speed, look elsewhere. The 3.35 at Ayr is going to be a proper war of attrition. Three miles in the Ayr mud requires a horse with lungs of leather and the heart of a lion.
Looking at the declarations and the historical data, one name jumps off the page immediately.
The Selection: Shoeshine Boy (3/1)
Sometimes, this game is about keeping it simple. Shoeshine Boy isn’t just a course winner; he owns this track.
The History: A quick glance at the “Last Year’s Winner” stats shows he won this exact contest back in 2024. He knows the route, he handles the undulations, and crucially, he handles the Soft ground.
Current Form: He arrives here seeking a hat-trick after back-to-back wins. His run comment from his last outing (Jan 29th) reads “stayed on gamely… just did enough.” That is exactly the attitude you want in a slog like this.
The Numbers: He is the top-rated horse on the HRB Total (299.9), miles clear of the field. With a 40% strike rate at Ayr, he is the most solid proposition on the card.
The Danger: Biglesisback (11/4)
Lucinda Russell’s runner is the obvious threat, but he comes with a health warning. His form figures of 222 tell the story—he is the perennial bridesmaid.
The run comments are damning: “headed before last,” “no match for winner,” “outpaced by winner.” He likely sets the pace, but in a race over this distance on this ground, he looks vulnerable to a stronger stayer in the final furlong. I’m happy to take him on.
The Value Angle: Better Be Definite (10/1)
If you are looking for an each-way swing, look at the bottom of the card. Better Be Definite carries just 10-8, receiving a massive 17lbs from the top weights.
His last run here 28 days ago was a massive eye-catcher. While others were paddling, he “rallied and stayed on past tiring rivals.” The step up in trip combined with the featherweight makes him a very dangerous lurker if the pace collapses.
The Verdict
Gordon Elliott sends Kasanovas Dream over, and while you respect the yard, the horse is still a maiden after 7 runs. I’d rather back the proven commodity.
Shoeshine Boy ticks every box: Course form, distance form, ground suitability, and current well-being. He is the bet of the day.
Win: Shoeshine Boy
Next Best: Better Be Definite (Each Way)