With the overnight withdrawal of Sleeping Satellite, we are left with a four-runner tactical skirmish for the 2.05 at Ayr. The ground is currently Soft (GoingStick 5.9) with showers forecast, making this a proper test of stamina despite the small field.
The One to Beat
Ballymackie (IRE) — 1/2 Fav
The form choice is impossible to ignore. His stable debut for Olly Murphy at Leicester in December was a revelation. He didn’t just win; he dismantled the field by 6 lengths with plenty left in the tank. An 8lb rise for that victory is fair, and while this is a step up in grade, his high cruising speed should be the deciding factor.
Verdict: The clear class act. Should travel best of all.
The Main Threat
Heads Or Harps — 4/1
Lucinda Russell rarely leaves Ayr empty-handed, and this 9-year-old is a previous course winner. He’s been campaigned over 2m lately but has looked like a horse “crying out” for more distance. The step up to 2m 4½f on soft ground is exactly what he needs to bring his stamina into play.
Verdict: The stay-on danger. If the favourite’s jumping falters, he’ll be there to pick up the pieces.
The Rest
Ballyedward (6/1): Represents the astute Stuart Crawford yard, but his recent form is regressive. Needs to prove he can handle the rhythm of a chase after some poor efforts over hurdles.
Ozzy Cosmo (12/1): A course winner in his prime, but three non-completions in his last five starts suggest he’s a risky proposition in this company.
The Tactical Outlook
In a 4-runner field, expect a crawl. Ozzy Cosmo is the likely pace-setter, but Sean Bowen won’t let him get too far away on Ballymackie. The race will likely truly begin at the turn for home. While Heads Or Harps will relish the slog, Ballymackie has the superior turn of foot to put the race to bed before the final fence.
Final Word
Ballymackie is the “HRB Top Rated” for a reason. He’s the most progressive horse in the line-up and has the championship-winning duo of Murphy and Bowen in his corner.
Top Pick: Ballymackie
Alternative: Straight Forecast (3-1)