If you went into the Dublin Racing Festival looking for reassurance on your ante-post portfolio, you probably came out rubbing your temples. So-called “bankers” were exposed, markets are scrambling, and if you’re not reassessing right now, you’re lighting money on fire.
This is the no-nonsense handicapper’s view of where Cheltenham stands heading into March.
Gold Cup: The Guard Is Changing
Let’s cut through the sentiment. Galopin Des Champs is no longer the monster he once was. Third in the Irish Gold Cup might be dressed up as “running with credit”, but credit doesn’t cash. He looked like a horse whose best days are behind him, especially when taken on by fresher, younger legs.
The real headline act is Fact To File. This wasn’t just a win — it was domination. He brushed aside Gaelic Warrior and Galopin Des Champs with authority. The only question mark isn’t ability, it’s administration. He isn’t currently entered in the Gold Cup and would need to be supplemented. If JP McManus pays up, he’s the one they all have to beat.
Crucially, he finally answered the stamina question. That lingering doubt from last season has been put to bed. As for Gaelic Warrior, he once again raced far too keenly. If he ever learns to settle, he’s a danger — but right now, Fact To File is the standout staying chaser in Ireland.
Champion Hurdle: The Mare Conundrum
Brighterdaysahead turning over Lossiemouth in the Irish Champion Hurdle was a genuine shock — and a statement. Gordon Elliott has her exactly where he wants her. She was tough, relentless, and outbattled Lossiemouth, who looked uncomfortable throughout and hung left at key moments.
The narrative now points to Lossiemouth dropping back into the Mares’ Hurdle. It’s the sensible play — but it’s also the easy one. The Champion Hurdle division is thin. Constitution Hill remains a total unknown, with schooling concerns and a baffling potential Flat prep muddying the waters. If connections had real confidence, Lossiemouth would stay in the Champion — but all signs suggest a retreat to Tuesday.
One the market is overlooking is Golden Ace. He’s sitting there at a very workable price, quietly holding form that stacks up against the best in this division.
Novice Chasers: Reality Check
If you’re holding a Brown Advisory ticket on Final Demand, it’s time to be ruthless — tear it up. Turned over at odds-on, he folded the moment he came under pressure. Whether it was physical or mental, he didn’t want the fight, and that’s a fatal flaw for Cheltenham, especially up the hill.
Over two miles, Romeo Coolio landed the Irish Arkle, but it was anything but convincing. He idled, looked in trouble, and only just held off Kargese. Everything about him screams 2½ miles rather than a flat-out two-mile burn-up at Cheltenham.
If he lines up in the Arkle, he’s vulnerable — particularly to a genuine speed horse like Lulamba, assuming the ground comes right, or even Kargese herself, who arguably showed the sharper gears.
The One Solid Banker
In a meeting riddled with uncertainty, Narcisso Has stands out. His Spring Juvenile Hurdle win was arrogant. He’s professional, fluent at his hurdles, and races like a seasoned operator. Salma Devi ran a huge race in second and will improve, but Narcisso Has looks the only truly solid favourite left for the Triumph Hurdle.
Handicap Radar: Notebook Time
Two horses you want onside immediately:
Waterford Whispers
Eye-catching third in a Leopardstown handicap chase. He finished strongly and looks tailor-made for something like the Cheltenham Plate.
Backme Or Sackme
A gutsy handicap chase winner who just keeps finding. Stays all day, handles pressure, and looks an ideal National Hunt Chase type.
Final Verdict
The British challenge rests largely on Lulamba and Old Park Star (Supreme), but Irish dominance isn’t going anywhere — it’s simply shifting hands.
Willie Mullins has some novice headaches, but he holds the Gold Cup ace if Fact To File is supplemented. Gordon Elliott is firmly back in business with Brighterdaysahead.
Forget reputations. Trust what your eyes told you last weekend:
Fact To File is the new Gold Cup standard
Final Demand is a lay
Narcisso Has is the Triumph winner