Small-field handicaps at Dundalk are notoriously tactical affairs, and Wednesday’s 5.12 is a classic “pace trap.” While the bookies are desperate for you to pile into the short-priced favorite, the form book suggests a tactical masterclass is brewing from an unlikely source.
The Heavy Hitters
The Real Screamer (5/4) is the obvious choice. He won with ears pricked here a fortnight ago and holds the highest speed figures in the race. However, he’s a quirky individual. He carries more weight today and, in a six-runner field, he’s exactly the type of horse that gets boxed in while the jockey is waiting for a gap that never appears.
Take Heart (5/2) is the “hard-luck” story. He was the eye-catcher last time, flying home after a messy start. But that’s the problem—he always starts slowly. On the Dundalk Polytrack, if you give a smart front-runner a five-length head start, you’re playing with fire.
The Value Angle
The real interest lies with Walhaan (8/1). Don’t be fooled by his age; this 10-year-old is a course-and-distance specialist with a massive tactical advantage here.
He was beaten four lengths by the favorite last time, but the handicapper and the apprentice claim have handed him an 11lb swing in the weights. More importantly, he is the only horse in this lineup who wants to lead. If P. McGettigan (claiming 7lbs) manages to “steal” the first four furlongs at a crawl, the younger horses behind him will be stuck in second gear when the sprint for home begins.
The Verdict
The Real Screamer might have the engine, but Walhaan has the map. In a race where position is everything, the veteran is weighted to cause an upset. He’ll lead them into the straight, and with that weight advantage, he might just prove impossible to peg back.
The Play: Walhaan (Win)
The Danger: Take Heart (if the pace collapses)