If you’re looking for a mid-week marathon, Dundalk’s 2.38 on Wednesday is a proper test. It’s a two-mile handicap on the Polytrack that’s going to separate the genuine stayers from the pretenders. Here is the no-nonsense lowdown on how to play the race.
The Big Two: Class vs. Weight
The market is essentially a duel between Tatateo and Gallo Dell Cielo. On paper, they are the clear standouts, but the handicap scale makes this a fascinating tactical battle.
Tatateo (#1) is the class act of the field. He’s in the form of his life, having dominated over this distance just five days ago. However, the handicapper has hit him hard. Carrying 10st 4lb over a two-mile trip is a massive burden, and the quick five-day turnaround raises concerns about whether he can produce that same spark twice in one week.
In contrast, Gallo Dell Cielo (#8) is the ultimate course specialist. He is two-for-two over the last few months at Dundalk, including a win over this exact distance where he was eased down at the finish. Most importantly, he carries a manageable 9st 6lb. He is receiving 12lbs from Tatateo—over a two-mile slog, that is a significant advantage that could easily tip the scales.
The Each-Way Value
If the favourites falter, Black Gem (#9) is the one to watch. He finished three lengths behind Gallo Dell Cielo last time out, but a major weight shift means he is effectively much better off today. At 6/1, he is the smart play for each-way backers or those looking for a bit of value away from the top of the market.
The Verdict
The smart money is on Gallo Dell Cielo. He is fresh, loves the surface, and carries a weight that won’t break his back in the final furlong. While Tatateo has the quality to win, the combination of top weight and a five-day backup makes him a risky proposition at a short price. Black Gem is the clear pick to fill the places.
The Play: Back Gallo Dell Cielo to win. For a bit of extra security, a Reverse Forecast with Tatateo covers the two most logical outcomes.