If you’re heading to Hereford this Wednesday, bring your wellies. The ground is Heavy, the rails have been pushed out, and this 2m4f handicap hurdle is going to be a brutal test of stamina. In conditions like these, the form book often goes out the window in favour of two things: Weight and Will.
Here is the “no-nonsense” breakdown of where the smart money is going.
The Big Guns: Class vs. Gravity
King Jon Oliver (9/4) and Lucky Bere (100/30) dominate the market, and for good reason.
King Jon Oliver comes from the powerhouse Olly Murphy yard, which boasts a staggering 42% strike rate at this track. He won with plenty in hand at Fakenham, but life gets harder today. He’s carrying 11-13 on gluey ground—a massive ask for a horse stepping into a handicap.
Lucky Bere is the “stat-attack” special. Harry Cobden doesn’t ride for Kayley Woollacott often, but when he does, they win (56% strike rate over 2 years). He’s the top-rated horse on the TimeWise scale, but he showed a tendency to wander under pressure last time. In a slog, that lack of discipline can be fatal.
The “Weight” Angle
In a Class 4 on heavy ground, top weights are usually vulnerable. Bingoo (11/2) is a grand servant but carrying 12-0 at the age of ten is a tall order. Instead, look to the bottom of the card.
Don Rafael (10/1) is the one that jumps off the page. He is a Course and Distance winner who stays all day. Crucially, he carries just 10-13. Receiving 14lbs from the top weight on this ground is like having a head start. His recent form is rock solid (1st and 3rd in his last two), and at double-figure odds, he is the clear value.
The Dark Horse
Kel Du Large (6/1) shouldn’t be ignored. He has a 60% win rate on this type of surface. While his recent runs have been underwhelming, he’s unexposed and back on the ground he loves.
The Verdict
The Play: DON RAFAEL (Each-Way)
Forget the hype surrounding the Cobden/Woollacott combo for a second. On heavy ground at Hereford, you want a course specialist who doesn’t mind a scrap and carries a light weight. Don Rafael ticks every box and represents massive Each-Way value at 10/1.
The Danger: LUCKY BERE
If the stats hold true and Cobden works his magic, he’s the one they all have to beat. He is the class act in the race, but he’ll have to earn it in the mud.
1-2 Prediction:
Don Rafael
Lucky Bere