If you’re looking for a quiet Wednesday night, the 7:40 at Kempton is not the place to find it. This Class 5 Fillies’ Handicap over 1m 3f is a proper puzzle. The surface is “Standard to Slow,” which at this distance turns the final two furlongs into a war of attrition.
Here is the no-nonsense breakdown of where the money should be going.
The Exposed Favourite: Rajinoora (IRE)
Rajinoora currently heads the market at 3/1, and on paper, she’s the one to beat with the highest HRB rating (252.4). However, “paper” doesn’t account for temperament. She’s developed a frustrating habit of missing the break or finding trouble—clipping heels at Wolverhampton last time out being a prime example. While she’s consistent, she’s becoming a “cliff horse” for punters. At these odds, she’s a risky anchor for your bets.
The Professional’s Choice: Lilly Lux (FR)
Lilly Lux (4/1) is the most progressive horse in the line-up. While others are plateauing, her ratings are on a steep upward curve, posting a field-high 73.6 in her last outing.
The Logic: She was only narrowly denied at Southwell 36 days ago and clearly relishes a battle.
The Mitchell Factor: Jack Mitchell is a specialist on this track. From Stall 9, expect him to keep her out of the kickback and deliver a late, sustained challenge.
The “Stat Attack” Value: Aiming High
If you’re hunting for each-way value, look no further than Aiming High at 10/1.
The Trainer is Hot: David Simcock is currently operating at a massive 40% strike rate over the last fortnight. In February, you follow the form of the yard, and Simcock’s stable is currently on fire.
The Rating Discrepancy: Her HRB Total Rating of 251.7 is virtually identical to the favorite, yet she’s more than triple the price. Her recent 7th-place finishes are easily forgiven due to severe interference in December and an unsuitable trip last time. Back up to 1m 3f, she is a huge runner.
The Verdict
Forget the short prices on the returning layoffs like Miss Herschel. This race belongs to the race-fit and the progressive.
Main Selection: LILLY LUX — The speed figures don’t lie; she is the one with the most left in the locker.
Each-Way Shout: AIMING HIGH — A top-tier trainer in peak form with a horse rated to win.
The Forecast: Box them up with Caramay, who is a 1m 3f specialist and rarely runs a bad race.