If you’re looking for a smooth-traveling superstar, look elsewhere. The 3.55 at Limerick this afternoon is a 0-100 handicap hurdle on Heavy ground. In Irish winter racing, that translates to a war of attrition where the last horse standing—not the fastest—collects the cheque.
Here is the no-nonsense breakdown of where the money should go.
The One to Beat: Marelly (#3)
On paper, Marelly is the class act. He is the only horse in this 13-runner field coming off a win (Gowran Park, 19 days ago), and he did it by dictating from the front.
The Verdict: He tops the ratings at 226.5. If he gets loose in the lead, he’ll be hard to peg back. However, he’s lugging 12-0 in bottomless mud. That is a massive physical ask at a track that finds out any chinks in a horse’s armour. At 11/2, he’s a fair price, but not a “banker.”
The “Target” Horse: Dontcavein (#5)
This is the “shrewd” play of the race. Trainer Ciaran Murphy won this exact race last year with Moudan.
The Verdict: Dontcavein has been running over further (2.5 miles). Dropping back to 2 miles in a slog is a classic move for a horse with superior stamina. The stats back it up: he has a 50% strike rate for this distance profile. At 17/2, he’s the best value on the card for an each-way poke.
The Lightweight Threat: Wild Wild Wind (#14)
In these conditions, weight kills. While Marelly carries 12 stone, this 5-year-old mare carries just 10-6.
The Verdict: She’s consistent, finishing in the frame in her last two starts. She won’t mind the conditions and will be staying on when the top-weights are treading water. A rock-solid each-way option at 11/2.
The One to Avoid: Big Dee (#4)
The bookies have him as the 9/4 favorite, which is frankly laughable in a race this volatile.
The Verdict: He’s 1-from-9 in his career and has a habit of finding one or two too good when it matters. There is zero “juice” in that price. Let the casual punters bake him into their multiples; we’re looking elsewhere.
The Strategy
The Win: Marelly (#3) if you believe class prevails over weight.
The Value (Each-Way): Dontcavein (#5). The trainer knows exactly what it takes to win this specific race.
The Forecast: 3 & 5.
Bottom line: It’s going to be filthy, it’s going to be slow, and it’s going to be won by the horse that handles the weight best. My money is on the Murphy stable repeating the trick with Dontcavein.