A tight six-runner field for this Class 4 Fillies’ Handicap over the Kempton mile. While the market is fixated on the “big name” connections of the favourite, the real value lies with a horse that has already proven it can handle this specific test.
The Market Leader: All Moonshine (13/8)
On paper, she’s the one to beat. Andrew Balding and Oisin Murphy are a formidable duo, and she arrives on a hat-trick after wins at Southwell and Wolverhampton.
The Reality Check: Both those wins were over 7 furlongs. Last time out at Wolves, she was “all out” to hold on. Now stepping up to a mile on Kempton’s potentially “Standard to Slow” surface, her stamina is a genuine question mark. At current odds, you’re paying a premium for the trainer’s name rather than proven staying power.
The Smart Play: Jazzy Baby (4/1)
If you want a horse for the course, this is it. Jazzy Baby isn’t guessing about the distance—she won over this Course and Distance (C&D) just 28 days ago.
Weight Advantage: She receives a massive 8lb weight allowance from the favourite. Over a mile at Kempton, that’s roughly three lengths of “free” advantage.
The Upward Curve: She’s only had four career runs and is completely unexposed in handicaps. A mark of 72 looks incredibly lenient given her recent dominance.
Tactical Edge: Drawn in Stall 2, she can track the favourite (Stall 1) and strike when the extra furlong begins to tell on her rival.
The Rest of the Field
Great Mates (9/2): Extremely consistent and rarely out of the frame. However, she’s drawn widest in Stall 6 and might find one or two of these simply have more “gears” in the final furlong.
True Colors (6/1): Dropping back from 10f. She has quality but might find this a bit too much of a sprint finish.
Summer Heat (7/1): Still a maiden after seven attempts. Hard to recommend until she actually gets her head in front.
Verdict
Jazzy Baby is the professional’s selection. She has the course form, the distance in her legs, and a significant weight advantage over the hype horse. In a win-only market with just six runners, she is the clear value.
Selection: #6 JAZZY BABY
Danger: #2 All Moonshine