Date: Thursday 12th February 2026
Race: Bet 10 Get 40 With BetMGM Handicap (Class 5)
Distance: 5f (Standard)
The 2.33 at Lingfield isn’t just a 5-furlong dash; it’s a tactical puzzle waiting to be solved. We have a field of seven 3-year-olds, a short-priced favourite stepping up in class, and a massive draw bias potential. Let’s cut through the noise and get to the winner.
The Pace & Draw Map
This race will be won or lost in the first furlong.
The Hare: Far Too Fizzy (8) likes to blast out and dominate. He made all to win easily last time. But here’s the snag: he’s drawn widest in Stall 8. To lead, he has to burn serious petrol to cross the field before the bend.
The Challenger: Loleeta (4) has plenty of early boot (“Made virtually all” in previous runs) and a much kinder draw. If she holds her line, Far Too Fizzy could be trapped three-wide facing the breeze.
The Stalker: Henrythenate (1) sits in the plum Stall 1. While the others cut each other’s throats up top, he can sit in the box seat on the rail, saving every inch of ground.
The Contenders
Henrythenate (11/2) – The Smart Play
This gelding is the one to beat. He was a decisive winner over this Course & Distance just 19 days ago, showing a devastating turn of foot to win “going away.” Critically, that win was in Class 5 company. He’s proven at this level, in form, and drawn perfectly in Stall 1 to stalk the likely pace burn-up. The data screams value.
Far Too Fizzy (5/2) – The Vulnerable Favourite
He looked a machine winning by 5.5 lengths last time, but context is everything. That was a Class 6 contest. Today he steps up to Class 5 and faces the coffin corner draw (Stall 8). He’s exciting, but at 5/2, the price is too skinny for a horse who might get parked wide.
Loleeta (5/1) – The Wildcard
Top-rated on total figures (258.9) and represents the dangerous S.C. Williams yard (20% track strike rate). She’s been off for 166 days, which is a concern for a sprinter, but if she’s fit, she has the speed to exploit Far Too Fizzy’s wide draw.
This Guy (6/1) – The Place Banker
Ten starts, zero wins, but six places. He’s as honest as the day is long. Coming over from consistent runs at Dundalk, he’s solid each-way material if the front-runners collapse, but he rarely finds the winning nose.
The Verdict
The market seems to have overreacted to Far Too Fizzy’s visual demolition job in a lower grade. The step up in class combined with a nightmare draw makes him a classic lay at the prices.
Instead, all signs point to HENRYTHENATE. He has the course form, the class proof, and the tactical advantage of the inside rail. Expect him to sit third or fourth early, wait for the leaders to tire, and use that proven acceleration to put the race to bed.
Start the Day Right:
Win: Henrythenate @ 11/2
Forecast: Henrythenate to beat Loleeta