Forget the formbook flattery; this 2m4f Class 4 handicap chase is going to be a brutal test of stamina. With “Heavy” in the description and snow in the air, Leicester’s 15 fences will feel like mountains by the second circuit. In a five-runner field, there’s nowhere to hide.
The Heavy Hitters
Rosscahill (11/8) The market leader for the Twiston-Davies yard is the clear class act on paper with a Master Rating of 261. However, punters should be wary of that ‘PU’ next to his name from October. He’s a front-runner who likes to dominate, but 107 days off before a slog in the mud is a big ask for a horse that tends to jump right.
No Tackle (2/1) The ‘safe’ pair of hands. He knows exactly where the winning post is at Leicester, having finished a solid second here just 23 days ago. He’s fit, handles the surface, and rarely runs a bad race. He lacks the “wow” factor of the favourite, but he’ll be the one snapping at Rosscahill’s heels if the favourite’s fitness wavers.
One Last Glance (4/1) This is the “Jockey Play.” Tom Gretton has booked Sean Bowen, which screams intent. Bowen is a master at coaxing a jump out of a horse, and this one needs it—One Last Glance has a habit of “clouting” a few. If Bowen can keep him tidy over the first ten fences, his 4/1 price tag looks like the value of the race.
The Outsiders
Mombasa (10/1): You can never fully dismiss a Venetia Williams runner on heavy ground in February, but the horse is 0-for-5 and looked outpaced at Wincanton last month.
Stormin Crossgales (16/1): Four non-completions in his last five starts. First-time cheekpieces are applied, but it feels like a “hail mary” from the yard. Best left alone.
The Final Verdict
If this were a speed test, Rosscahill would win by ten lengths. But Leicester in the snow is a different beast. No Tackle is the most battle-hardened for these exact conditions, but for those looking for a bit more “meat on the bone,” One Last Glance under Sean Bowen is the tactical choice.
The Shout: No Tackle for the win, with One Last Glance as the primary threat.