This four-runner Class 3 Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase over 2m 3.5f is a classic tactical puzzle. While the market is siding with local hope Juby Ball, a technical look at the weights and pace suggests the value lies with the top weight.
Tactical Overview
Chepstow is a galloping track where rhythm is everything. In a small field, the lead is often uncontested, which plays directly into the hands of The Four Sixes. As a serial front-runner who has “made all” in four of his last five wins, Sean Bowen is unlikely to face significant pressure for the rail. Expect him to dictate a steady tempo, saving enough for the climb to the finish. Willmount should track him, while Juby Ball is likely to wait in third, hoping to pounce late.
The Field
The Four Sixes (11-10)
The clear class act of the race with an Official Rating of 144. He is effectively a Class 2 horse running in a Class 3 event. His speed rating of 79.9 is significantly higher than his rivals, and his jumping has looked efficient and professional in small-field scenarios. Carrying top weight is a challenge, but his ability to dictate the fractions from the front makes him the most likely winner from a technical standpoint.
Juby Ball (10-9)
The 5/6 favourite based on his progressive hurdles profile and “could be anything” status over fences. However, he was beaten over six lengths here 17 days ago and fell the time before. While he is theoretically well-handicapped, his jumping has yet to prove reliable under pressure. At odds-on, he is a high-risk proposition against a proven 140-plus horse like the top weight.
Gamesters Guy (11-1)
A horse that appears to be losing his way. He was last of five at Windsor recently and his jumping was untidy when it mattered. He has a decent strike rate in lower grades, but in this company, he looks exposed. He’ll need the front two to cut each other’s throats to have a chance, which seems unlikely given the projected pace.
Willmount (10-6)
Equipped with plenty of talent but zero reliability. His recent record includes two falls and a pulled-up effort. While the drop in trip might help his finishing effort, it won’t fix his technical errors at the obstacles. He is strictly for the “each-way” gamblers if the price is right, but even then, he’s a dangerous bet.
Final Word
In a small-field novice chase, you want the horse that jumps best and controls the speed. The Four Sixes does both. He has the class edge to concede weight to this field and the tactical advantage of being the only natural leader. Unless Juby Ball takes a massive step forward in jumping accuracy, the top weight should prove too strong.
Selection: The Four Sixes (IRE)