Small fields on soft ground are often misread as tactical affairs. In reality, they are pure tests of stamina efficiency. In Friday’s 3.10 at Chepstow—a Class 3 Mares’ Handicap Hurdle—the market is likely to focus on recent winning margins, but the underlying data suggests a different conclusion.
The Pace Conflict
The race map is dominated by two aggressive front-runners: Princess Keri (4) and Love Of Neymore (2). Both are habitual lead-seekers who perform best when dictating terms.
Princess Keri was visually impressive at Hereford, but she is a six-year-old stepping up to Class 3 company for the first time.
Love Of Neymore holds the field’s highest speed rating (HRB 317.5) but has a documented tendency to hang left under pressure—a potential liability on Chepstow’s punishing uphill finish.
If these two engage in a mid-race duel on ground currently described as Soft, Heavy in places, they will inadvertently set the race up for a stalker.
Technical Runner Profiles
Holly Hartingo (1) faces a significant physiological hurdle. Carrying 12st 0lb on this surface over three miles requires a near-career-best performance. At ten years old and giving up to 14lb to younger rivals, she is a statistically poor proposition for a win.
Love Of Neymore (2) is the “class” athlete here. She is a previous course winner and thrives in high-tempo races. Her success depends entirely on whether Charlie Price can get her to settle in second rather than fighting for the lead.
Jalisco Star (3) is the tactical beneficiary of this field. Her profile shows she is most effective when tracking the pace and “forging away” late. With Toby McCain-Mitchell claiming a valuable 5lb, she is effectively the best-weighted horse in the race at 11st 2lb.
Princess Keri (4) carries the “form” tag after a 17-length romp. However, that was in a weak Class 5. Moving into Class 3 requires a significant jump in jumping accuracy and raw speed which her current rating of 110 may not yet support.
Getaway Theatre (5) won this race last year but has shown a regressive profile in recent starts. While Sean Bowen is a top-tier booking, the horse’s recent metrics suggest she is struggling to find her former zip.
The Verdict
While Princess Keri will likely be over-bet due to the optics of her last win, the professional play is Jalisco Star (3). She is the only runner whose run-style—tracking and closing—aligns with a contested pace. With the 5lb claim, she is perfectly weighted to pick up the pieces when the leaders tie up on the run to the final flight.
Selection: Jalisco Star (3) Danger: Love Of Neymore (2)