This is a typical Lingfield basement-grade 7f where positioning and repeatable speed matter far more than reputation. With an inside bias and a couple who like to go forward, the shape of the race is everything.
Pace Angle
Huntly Lodge and Miraflores are the most likely to press on. Under Curfew can sit just behind them, while Mintana has the tactical pace to hold a handy slot. Woodrafff is usually ridden with patience and will be played late.
It doesn’t scream burn-up. More likely a steady-to-honest gallop, which makes track position turning in crucial.
The Principals
Woodrafff
Top on recent speed figures and arrives after two narrow defeats over 7f. He travels well and runs his race more often than not. The concern is his tendency to find one too good and the fact he’ll probably be played late from mid-division. At short odds, he’s solid but not bombproof.
Mintana
The most interesting runner tactically. Consistent figures around the 60 mark, proven at the trip and capable of sitting just off the leaders. In this grade, that blend of pace and position is powerful. She doesn’t need everything to collapse and looks a straightforward contender.
Under Curfew
The veteran still holds his level. Drawn well to track the pace and regularly posts figures that put him in the mix. He lacks a turn of foot but if he gets first run off the bend, he’s dangerous at a price.
American Rose
Back-to-back seconds suggest she’s knocking on the door, but both efforts followed the same script: travelled strongly, led late, headed near the line. She looks vulnerable in a finish and may again find one stronger.
Others
Huntly Lodge and Miraflores are pace influences but have a habit of weakening. The remainder look held on recent evidence unless the race falls apart.
Verdict
This looks less about raw ability and more about who gets the run of the race.
Woodrafff sets the standard on figures but is short enough given his profile. Mintana has the tactical edge and appeals as the one most likely to be in the right place at the right time. Under Curfew rates the value alternative if the leaders don’t fold completely.
Shortlist:
Mintana
Woodrafff
Under Curfew
In races like this, keep it simple: side with the runner who can secure position and reproduce a repeatable number. Mintana fits that bill best.