Small-field handicap chases at Fakenham are rarely about finding the “best” horse; they are about finding the horse best suited to the track’s idiosyncratic, tight turns and the likely tactical crawl.
Friday’s Terry Moyise Memorial Mares Handicap Chase sees four runners go to post on Soft ground. Here is the technical breakdown of the field.
The C&D Specialist: Belle Montrose (7/4)
Belle Montrose is the clinical selection. She arrives following a decisive Course and Distance (C&D) win 26 days ago. While that 40/1 starting price raises eyebrows, the data suggests it was no fluke. She recorded the highest Master Rating in this field (313.3) and displayed the most “Progressive” run style, moving smoothly between rivals to lead at the second to last. At seven years old, she is the least exposed and remains on a workable mark of 101.
The Class Danger: Kalista Love (2/1)
The top-weight, Kalista Love, is the highest-rated runner (OR 106). She is a consistent “grinder,” as evidenced by her “Gave All” run comment frequency (80%). However, she drops back significantly in trip from 25.5f to 21f. On Soft ground, her stamina is a weapon, but she may lack the tactical toe required to ping Fakenham’s fences if the pace is steady.
The Pace Setters: Moviddy (5/2) & Jacks Touch (8/1)
Moviddy is the projected pace angle. She led in her latest outing over this C&D but was ultimately brushed aside by Belle Montrose. A trainer strike rate of 0/8 at this track is a significant red flag for a 10yo who often lacks a finishing kick.
Jacks Touch brings the best jockey-form metric, with Tom Cannon operating at a 57% strike rate. However, her speed figures are the lowest in the race (67.5), and her jumping often lacks the precision needed for this circuit.
Technical Verdict
The race is likely to be a re-run of the January 18th contest over this C&D. Belle Montrose was value for more than the 1.5-length winning margin that day. She is a daughter of Milan, a sire with a 36% win rate at this track, and she remains the most efficient jumper in the line-up.
The Call: Belle Montrose to confirm recent form and out-sprint Kalista Love after the final fence.