Tomorrow’s 3.35 at Kelso—a Class 3 Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase—is a 16-fence test of attrition. On Heavy ground over 2m 5½f, this won’t be a race for the faint-hearted. It is a compact six-runner field, but the data reveals a clear divide between the established class and the speculative improvers.
The Pace Map
With no confirmed “front-runner” in the line-up, expect a tactical, muddling pace early on.
I Am Max and Young Jack are the most likely to be forced into the lead by default.
Queensbury Boy and Milcree will likely track them closely, waiting for the jumping to take its toll on the outsiders.
The Key Contenders
Queensbury Boy (The Class Act)
The metrics identify Mickey Bowen’s runner as the one to beat. With an OR of 127 and a field-high HRB Master Rating of 303.1, he brings the strongest form to the table.
The Caveat: He has a documented tendency to jump right. On Kelso’s left-handed circuit, this technical inefficiency could be costly under top weight. However, his speed rating (81.9) suggests he has the gears to compensate.
Milcree (The Progressive Threat)
N.G. Richards has his string in fine order, and Milcree arrives on the back of a dominant Heavy-ground win at Ayr.
The Verdict: He is a low-mileage chaser with significant upside. Carrying 4lb less than the top-weight, he is the most likely to benefit if Queensbury Boy’s jumping flaws emerge under pressure.
Young Jack (The Course Specialist)
You cannot ignore a horse with a ‘C’ (Course Winner) designation at Kelso.
The Stats: He boasts a 20% track strike rate and was only denied by a neck at Newcastle 17 days ago. He is a “heart on his sleeve” type who will be there at the business end when others have faded in the mud.
The Professional Verdict
Despite the weight burden and the left-handed track, Queensbury Boy is the technical selection. In a limited handicap, the class gap is rarely bridged by the weights alone, and his superior HRB rating makes him the standard-bearer.
Milcree is the obvious danger for an in-form yard, while Young Jack represents the best value for those looking to oppose the front two.
1. Queensbury Boy
2. Milcree
3. Young Jack