Tonight’s feature at Chelmsford City, the Hearts And Hooves Handicap (18:30), is a proper stayer’s puzzle over the 1m 6f trip. On a surface where course specialists often reign supreme, all eyes are on one horse, though the class act at the top of the weights cannot be ignored.
The Course Specialist: Carlton (9/4 Fav)
If there is such a thing as “horses for courses,” Carlton is the poster boy. A six-time winner at this venue, James Owen’s gelding was agonizingly denied a seventh success last month, losing by a short head in a Class 5. He steps up to Class 4 tonight and carries 3lb more, but his affinity for this Polytrack surface is unparalleled. Under Ashley Lewis, he’ll likely sit mid-pack before launching a challenge in the final furlong.
The Class Factor: Tryfan (3/1)
Top-weight Tryfan brings a different profile to the table. Trained by Harry Charlton, he’s a horse that has competed at a significantly higher level, including Class 2 marathons. He was poor at Newcastle 27 days ago—rearing at the start—but he is far more reliable on the All-Weather than on turf. Dropping into a Class 4, he is technically the best horse in the race; the question is whether he can give 7lb to a specialist like Carlton over this specific distance.
The Unlucky Loser: Machete (9/2)
David O’Meara’s Machete is the “dark horse” for those looking beyond the front two. He was badly hampered at Wolverhampton 13 days ago and stayed on strongly for fourth. Cieren Fallon takes the ride tonight, and the step up to 1m 6f looks exactly what the doctor ordered for a horse that consistently finds himself with plenty to do late on.
The Verdict
While Tryfan has the back-class, CARLTON is simply too efficient at this track to oppose. He knows where the winning post is at Chelmsford, and providing he doesn’t find himself in another photo-finish scrap, he should gain his seventh course victory tonight.
Selection: Carlton (9/4)
Alternative: Machete (9/2)