Small fields on Heavy ground are often billed as tactical affairs, but at Kelso, they usually boil down to one thing: stamina. Friday’s 3.00 Handicap Chase features six runners, a 12lb weight spread, and enough mud to test the resolve of the hardiest stayers.
Here is the no-nonsense breakdown of the field.
The Leading Lights
Maximilian (4/1)
The form choice. He’s been the bridesmaid in all three chase starts this term, but don’t let that deter you. He’s a former Grade 2 winner over hurdles with a massive engine. He handles testing conditions, stays further than this trip, and in Brian Hughes, he has the best tactical brain in the North. He’s the most likely winner.
Bill Baxter (5/2)
The market leader, but a risky one. On his day, he’s a Grade 1-calibre handicapper (see his Punchestown win), but he arrived “tailed off” at Market Rasen last month. You are essentially betting on which version of the horse shows up. At 5/2, that is a gamble I’m not prepared to take on Heavy ground.
Empire Steel (6/1)
The Kelso specialist. If there was a “Horses for Courses” poster, his face would be on it. He’s 4 from 6 at this track. His recent fourth at Musselburgh was far better than the bare result suggests, and he has dropped to an extremely dangerous mark of 133.
The Outside Interest
King Of Answers (7/2): The progressive youngster. He gets weight from the field and won over C&D in December. If the “old guard” falters, he is the one to capitalise, though this is a significant step up in class.
Elvis Mail (8/1): A legend in these parts, but 12 years old with 12-0 on his back is a massive ask in a bog. He’ll plug on, but younger legs should prevail.
Dare To Shout (5/1): Coming off a “Pulled Up” effort at Newcastle. Needs to prove his wellbeing before being trusted at this level.
The Verdict
This race will be won by the horse that can travel through the Heavy ground without burning its pilot light too early. Empire Steel will likely try to lead them a merry dance, and given his record here, he’s the clear value play at the prices.
However, for a win selection, MAXIMILIAN is the most professional option. He is essentially a 145-rated hurdler playing in a 135-rated chase. He is battle-hardened, consistent, and looks primed to finally shed his “maiden chaser” tag.
Selection: Maximilian
Danger: Empire Steel