Kelso on a Friday in February is never for the faint-hearted, and tomorrow’s 2.30 Racing TV Club Day Handicap Hurdle is no exception. We are looking at a 2-mile trip on Heavy ground where survival is the primary metric.
### The Pace Map: A Recipe for a Collapse?
The data suggests a burn-up is likely. Both Chase A Fortune (3) and Triple Crown Ted (7) are habitual front-runners. The latter has a history of “fading flat” after being clear, and on this surface, an early duel for the lead could hand the race to a stalker. Berties Ballet (1) also likes to be prominent, but carrying 12-0 through the Kelso mud is a massive physical ask.
### The Technical Standout
Chase A Fortune is the horse the numbers love. He tops the Timewise Master Ratings (286.5) and holds a 40% win rate over this distance. His recent form (2-1-2-2) is remarkably robust, and his “Run Comments” highlight a “sustained duel” and “gamely” attitude. He is an honest galloper who won’t stop when the ground gets deep, though the 11-11 weight tag is the obvious hurdle.
### The Statistical Danger
If you’re looking to oppose the favourite, look at Lance Les Des (9). The “Stat Attack” identifies a 50% win rate for the sire (Gris De Gris) on this specific going. More importantly, he carries just 11-0. In a race where every pound feels like a stone by the final hurdle, that 11lb pull over the favourite is significant. His recent third over course and distance proves he handles the Kelso layout.
### The Verdict
This comes down to weight versus consistency. Chase A Fortune is the class act and the most reliable jumper, but he will have to work for it if the pace is contested early. Lance Les Des is the value play for those betting on the “Heavy” ground factor.
The Play: Chase A Fortune (To win)
The Threat: Lance Les Des (Receiving weight)
Avoid: Highly Recommended (Returning from a 457-day layoff into a mud-fest).