📍 Ascot Racecourse
3m | Soft | 4 runners
Small field. Proper test. No hiding place.
This is a tactical Grade 2 over a stiff three miles on soft ground. In a four-runner race like this, it won’t be about luck in running. It will be about jumping, positioning and who finds most from three out.
Pace Angle
Western Knight is the obvious pace. He has made all in small fields recently and won’t hang about. Expect him to stride on.
Thomas Mor should sit close enough in second, keeping tabs without forcing it.
The Jukebox Kid likely tracks in third, within striking distance.
Crest Of Fortune is the hold-up horse and will need the leaders to overdo it.
The tempo probably won’t be extreme, which means this could turn into a controlled test rather than a war of attrition.
The Contenders
Thomas Mor
Top rated and proven at a higher level. He was second in a Grade 1 last time and that is the standout piece of form in this race. He stays three miles, handles Ascot and has the class edge.
He’s not bombproof – he has been well beaten in deeper races before – but on balance he brings the strongest form and the highest ceiling. If he jumps cleanly and travels as he did at Kempton, he should take this.
The Jukebox Kid
Progressive and solid. He won over course and distance on soft last time and is clearly improving. The concern is whether he has the raw ability to match the favourite in a true Grade 2.
He is the main danger. If this turns tactical and the favourite underperforms, he is the one most likely to pick up the pieces.
Western Knight
Likely leader and recent winner in small fields. The issue is level. When stepped up in class before, he has come up short. He could give them something to aim at, but this is a stiffer assignment.
Crest Of Fortune
Often travels into races but finds little at the finish in stronger company. Hard to see him winning unless the top two both fail to fire.
Verdict
In a race lacking depth, class should tell.
Thomas Mor has the strongest form, the best rating and the right tactical profile to sit handy and strike late. He is short in the betting, but he deserves to be.
The Jukebox Kid is the one to chase him home.
Predicted finish:
Thomas Mor
The Jukebox Kid
Western Knight
Crest Of Fortune
Straightforward on paper. The favourite sets the standard and the others need to improve to beat him.