📍 Ascot Racecourse
2m3½f | Class 2 | Soft
This is a proper Saturday handicap. Fifteen runners, soft ground, and a long home straight that finds you out if you don’t truly stay.
The recent trend is clear enough: you want a horse on the way up, not one clinging to past ratings. Marks in the mid-120s to low-130s have been the sweet spot. Carrying top weight on soft round here is no gift.
The Solid One
Listentoyourheart tops the ratings and comes here off a competitive win at Windsor. He’s progressive, well treated on 128 and has the profile of a horse still improving. The slight question is ground – most of his better work has come on sounder surfaces – but if he handles conditions he’s the most straightforward option in the race.
The Class Angle
Captain Teague is arguably the most talented in the field. His novice chase form reads well and the yard knows how to win races like this. The issue is the weight and that recent pull-up. If he bounces back, he’s dangerous. If he doesn’t, 11st 9lb on soft will find him out.
The Progressive Threat
John Barbour is interesting off 125. He arrives in form, handles cut and isn’t fully exposed at this level. He’ll need to step forward again, but he doesn’t look harshly treated and fits the typical winner’s profile better than many.
The Others
Act Of Authority is consistent but looks high enough in the handicap.
Jurancon has strong stats on paper but recent runs lack spark.
At bigger prices, you’re guessing at a revival rather than working with solid evidence.
Verdict
Soft ground at Ascot over this trip is about stamina and resilience. That points towards something progressive rather than something trying to defy a big weight.
Listentoyourheart makes most appeal on balance.
John Barbour looks the value alternative.
Captain Teague is respected but comes with risk.
Keep it simple: side with the horse still improving, not the one with questions to answer.