If you’re looking for a proper winter stamina test, the Betfair Swinley Handicap Chase (3.00 Ascot) on Saturday is exactly what the doctor ordered. Three miles, soft ground, and a highly competitive field of 11 runners lining up for this £56k Premier Handicap.
It’s a race that usually separates the men from the boys—but this year, the age gap is massive. At the top of the handicap, we have the 14-year-old veteran Sam Brown lugging 12-0. Giving nearly two stone to a bunch of unexposed seven- and eight-year-olds in testing ground is a monumental task. The trends tell us 10 of the last 10 winners were aged between seven and ten. I’m afraid Sam Brown’s teenage years make him an easy line-through.
Let’s get straight to the pace angle. There’s plenty of early gas here. Jipcot made all to win at Leicester last time out, and Nocte Volatus arrives chasing a hat-trick, often ridden prominently. Add in Joyeux Machin—who was tanking along in front before taking a tumble at Doncaster—and we have the ingredients for a ferocious, honest gallop. They risk cutting each other’s throats, which perfectly sets the race up for a stalker.
Here is how the main protagonists shape up.
The Key Contenders
The Course Specialist: Threeunderthrufive (14/1)
You can’t preview the Swinley without mentioning Paul Nicholls’ eleven-year-old. He won this in 2024 and was beaten by a nose by Victtorino in 2025. Yes, he’s been pulled up in his last two starts, and his recent form is flatter than a pancake. But he absolutely lights up the stats board for this specific track and trip. If the return to Ascot sparks a revival, his double-figure price is a steal.
The Form Horse: Nocte Volatus (13/2)
Tom Lacey’s runner is absolutely flying, having won his last two on the bounce at Sandown. He tops the speed ratings and travels beautifully. The only concern is the pace map; he cannot afford to get dragged into a suicidal early duel with Jipcot.
The Stalker: Montregard (4/1)
Lacey’s other runner looks the most likely winner. This seven-year-old is unexposed over fences, carries a featherweight 10-2, and finished a cracking second over course and distance just four weeks ago. He has the ideal profile to sit just off the frenetic early pace and pick up the pieces coming up the Ascot straight.
The Venetia Factor: Hunter Legend (14/1)
When Venetia Williams targets a soft-ground handicap at Ascot, you pay attention. She won this race in 2023 (Cap Du Nord) and in 2025 (Victtorino). Hunter Legend has been knocking on the door with rock-solid placed efforts all winter. Sneaking in at the bottom of the weights, he’s been crying out for a true stamina test.
The Verdict
This has all the makings of a race that falls to a well-handicapped horse tracking the pace.
The main bet is Montregard. He ticks the boxes for age, weight, and course form. With Jonathan Burke in the saddle, he can sit behind the inevitable pace collapse and strike late.
At a bigger price, Hunter Legend is the each-way play. Venetia Williams farms these races, and at 14/1, his consistent profile and light weight make him massively overpriced.
To Win: Montregard (4/1)
Each-Way: Hunter Legend (14/1)