3:35 Ascot, Saturday 14th February 2026
I’ve spent the last hour trying to find an angle away from the favourite. The data won’t let me. Here’s why this is a one-horse race.
The Favourite Everyone’s Moaning About
Jonbon at 1/2 – yes, it’s short. No, there’s no value. But he’s going to win.
At Ascot: 3 runs, 3 wins, 100%
Perfect course record. Knows the track inside out.
On soft ground: 8 runs, 6 wins, 75%
Three-quarters strike rate on today’s going. Compare that to his rivals and it’s game over.
When favourite: 21 runs, 17 wins, 81%
When the market fancies him, he delivers four times out of five.
Right-handed tracks: 10 runs, 8 wins, 80%
So much for my earlier waffle about him jumping left causing problems. He’s won 80% of his races going right-handed.
The only question mark: He’s never run 2m5f before. His longest winning trip is 2m4f. Today asks him an extra furlong on soft ground.
That’s it. That’s the only doubt. And frankly, it’s not enough to put me off.
The Two-Time Champion With A Problem
Pic D’Orhy at 2/1 looks obvious on paper. He’s won this race in 2024 and 2025. He’s unbeaten at 2m5f (5 from 5). At Ascot over 2m5f specifically, he’s 3 from 3.
So why isn’t he favourite?
On soft ground: 5 runs, 2 wins, 40%
There’s your answer. On good ground, he’s 58%. On soft, he’s barely scraping 40%. Today is soft.
61-90 days since last run: 3 runs, 1 win, 33%
He’s 84 days off today. That bracket has produced ONE win from three attempts. Not ideal.
When priced 2/1-4/1: 12 runs, 4 wins, 33%
Only wins one race in three when priced in this range.
Right-handed: 19 runs, 8 wins, 42%
Below 50% going right-handed. Ascot is right-handed.
Every stat bar his distance form says he’s vulnerable today. The soft ground is the killer – he simply doesn’t perform on it like Jonbon does.
The Each-Way “Value” That Isn’t
I was banging on about Edwardstone at 10/1 being an each-way steal. Then I looked at his numbers properly.
On soft ground: 13 runs, 1 win, 8%
EIGHT PERCENT. One win from thirteen on soft, losing over eleven quid to a £1 stake. That’s not form, that’s charity for bookmakers.
At Ascot: 1 run, 0 wins
Never won here. Ran once, lost.
At 11-10 (today’s weight): 11 runs, 1 win, 9%
One from eleven at today’s weight.
When not favourite: 27 runs, 4 wins, 15%
Fifteen percent when the market doesn’t fancy him. Today, he’s 10/1.
Distance record: Never won beyond 2m½f. Today is 2m5f.
Tom Cannon might be riding at 67% in the last fortnight, but he’s not a magician. You can’t fix an 8% soft ground record with good jockeyship.
What’ll Actually Happen
Classic Maestro (150/1) will lead for a mile like the optimistic no-hoper he is, then blow up.
Pic D’Orhy will inherit the lead but he’s fighting the going, the track direction, and his layoff. The soft ground will find him out.
Jonbon will track, travel smoothly, and kick clear from three out. Unless 2m5f on soft stops him – and there’s nothing in his form to suggest it will – he wins pulling a cart.
Edwardstone will be toiling in fourth from the home turn, wondering why anyone backed him at 10/1 on ground he can’t handle.
The Bets (Or Lack Of)
Win: Jonbon @ 1/2 (if you must bet)
There’s no value at 1/2, but he’s the most likely winner by a street. Every stat except the distance unknown points to him. If you’re having a bet, it’s on him.
Each-way: Nothing
Pic D’Orhy’s soft ground form rules him out at 2/1. Edwardstone’s soft ground form rules him out at any price. There’s no each-way value here.
Swerve: The whole race if you’re chasing value
This is a betting heat. Short-priced favourite with one logical question mark. Overpriced second favourite with multiple red flags. Third favourite who can’t handle the conditions.
Sometimes the market prices a race perfectly and there’s nowhere to hide. This is one of those days.
Final word: If you’re backing Jonbon at 1/2, you’re getting what you pay for – a likely winner with no value. If you’re backing Pic D’Orhy at 2/1 because “he’s won it twice before,” you’re ignoring his 40% soft ground record. If you’re backing Edwardstone at 10/1, you’re ignoring an 8% soft ground record.
Best bet? Watch it, enjoy it, and save your money for a race with actual value. This one’s already decided on paper.