Date: Friday, 13th February 2026
Race: 6.45 Wolverhampton (7f Handicap)
Four-runner races are the graveyard of “good things”. Punters often look at the highest-rated horse, see a small field, and assume it’s a penalty kick. It isn’t. It’s a tactical trap.
In a field of four, there is rarely a genuine gallop. The race usually devolves into a gentle canter followed by a three-furlong sprint. This dynamic heavily favours the horse on the front end and spells disaster for hold-up merchants who get caught flat-footed when the gears change.
Here is why the 6.45 at Wolverhampton is a race to take on the favourite.
The Favourite: Diamondonthehill (6/4)
The Trap.
On raw numbers, Dr Newland’s runner is the “best” horse here (Top Rated HRB 288). But look at the run comments: “held up in rear,” “shaken up waiting for room,” “no extra final furlong.”
He is a habitual hold-up horse. In a full field with a fast pace, he can pick them off. Tonight, with zero guaranteed pace, he risks sitting last in a slow race, leaving himself too much to do when the sprint starts. He requires luck in running that he likely won’t get. At 6/4, he is a layup for the layers.
The Selection: City Cyclone (13/8)
The Bet.
This is where the smart money goes. City Cyclone arrives off a win at Kempton 23 days ago, proving his wellbeing. But the killer statistic is his course record: 4 wins from 6 starts (67% Strike Rate) over this specific track and distance.
Critically, he has tactical versatility. Comments like “quickly away” and “led briefly” suggest William Carson can pop him out, control the fractions, and turn this into the sprint that suits him. He carries bottom weight (9-1) and has the tactical speed to dictate the race.
The Danger: Follow Your Heart (7/2)
The Saver.
Do not discount the old boy. He is a six-time winner at Wolverhampton (35% Strike Rate). With Warren Fentiman’s 5lb claim, he is effectively carrying 9-2, putting him right in the mix. He will likely sit second or third. If City Cyclone fluffs the start, Follow Your Heart is the only other runner capable of capitalizing.
The Verdict
Ignore Al Muqdad; he is out of form and too slow from the gates. We are swerving Diamondonthehill due to the likely lack of pace.
City Cyclone has the form, the tactical speed, and the course record to control this from the front.
Win: City Cyclone
Forecast: City Cyclone to beat Follow Your Heart