Race: 1m 2½f Handicap (4yo+, 47-72)
Surface: Standard Polytrack
This 12-runner handicap looks straightforward on paper, but the data suggests the favourite is a precarious proposition. We have a classic setup: a short-priced market leader with bad habits versus a clutch of improving types primed for this specific distance.
The Favourite: Why We’re Swerving Autocrat (3/1)
The books have Autocrat at the head of the market, and the raw stats support it. He won over this course and distance 21 days ago, and the combination of trainer P. Sweeney and jockey Colin Keane boasts a lethal 42% strike rate here recently.
However, at 3/1, you are paying for reliability he doesn’t possess. His run comments are littered with red flags: “dwelt”, “slowly into stride”, “held up in rear”. In a 12-horse field at Dundalk, consistently missing the break is a recipe for finding trouble. He requires a pace collapse and a clear run. He might get it, but the price is too short to pay to find out.
The Selection: Daonethatgotaway (7/2)
This is the one you want on your slip.
His performance 14 days ago was the textbook definition of a “sighter.” He ran over one mile—a trip far too sharp for him—yet finished with a rattle to take 3rd, beating key rival Unterberg in the process.
The run comment tells the story: “Not clear run 1 1/2f out… stayed on strongly close home.”
Crucially, he has recorded zero “weakened” comments in his last 10 starts. He is a genuine finisher crying out for this return to 10½ furlongs. If he gets the gap, he has the turn of foot to put this bed.
The Danger: Limestone Red (100/30)
If you want a safer, albeit less exciting play, this is it. He won over C&D a month ago and represents a stable (Tracey Collins) operating at a 20% strike rate. From Stall 4, he maps perfectly to track the leaders and get the first run on the closers. He is the reliable benchmark in this field.
The Value Angle: Yutori (10/1)
Keep an eye on the 4yo, Yutori. He is the only confirmed pace angle in a race full of hold-up horses. From Stall 8, he should get an uncontested lead. He led until deep inside the final furlong over this trip last month. If the others get tangled up in traffic behind him, he could steal this from the front at a big price.
The Verdict
Win: Daonethatgotaway (7/2)
The rational play based on a perfect prep run and return to optimal distance.
Next Best: Limestone Red (100/30)
The solid tactical option.
Market Warning: Autocrat
Oppose at current prices due to gate issues.