Date: Friday 13th February 2026
Track: Wolverhampton (Standard)
Distance: 5f
Sprinting at Wolverhampton is rarely about who has the most raw ability; it is about geometry and early positioning. The 5f start offers a very short run to the first bend, statistically punishing those drawn wide who miss the kick.
Tonight’s Class 4 Handicap looks a tactical mismatch. The market will likely gravitate towards recent form figures, but the pace map tells a different story.
The Problem with the Favourite
El Bufalo arrives seeking a hat-trick after two impressive course-and-distance wins. Visually, his turn of foot is seductive. However, he draws Stall 7 of 7.
In a field of this size, being drawn widest is a significant handicap. To win, he either has to expend vital energy crossing the face of the field early—risking being posted wide on the turn—or drop to last and pray for gaps. At likely short odds, that is a position of weakness, not strength.
The Pace Angle
Sams Xpress (Stall 4) is the play.
Run comments for this gelding are monotonous: “Made all,” “Soon led,” “Set strong pace.” He is the only confirmed front-runner in the line-up. From Stall 4, he has a clear path to the rail.
His last effort at Lingfield (24 Jan) was excellent, setting a fierce gallop and only being collared on the line. He effectively runs his race in the first furlong. If he breaks cleanly, he controls the fractions. On this tight turning track, an uncontested lead is worth lengths.
The Dangers
Alondra (Stall 3) won comfortably here just four days ago (9 Feb). She is fit and clearly handles the surface, but turning a handicapper out again this quickly is always a gamble on recovery rates. If Sams Xpress goes too hard, she is the one likely to pick up the pieces, but the “bounce” factor is a real risk.
Cartwheel drops in class but returns from a 223-day absence. In a sharp 5f sprint, fitness is non-negotiable. Watch for late market moves, but he likely needs this run to blow away the cobwebs.
The Verdict
Don’t overthink it. El Bufalo has the form but the wrong draw. Sams Xpress has the pace, the draw, and the tactical profile to dominate a race lacking other early speed.
Win Selection: Sams Xpress
Keep it simple. Back the speed.