Date: Friday 13th February 2026
Race: Damian Toshi McDougall Memorial Handicap Chase (Class 4)
Conditions: 3m2f, Heavy
Kelso in February on Heavy ground is not a place for the faint-hearted. Today’s 3m2f handicap chase effectively rides like four miles elsewhere. This is an attrition test where stamina indexes and jumping efficiency under pressure are the only metrics that matter. The uphill finish here finds out those carrying condition or excessive lead in the saddle.
The Pace Angle: A War of Attrition
The pace map suggests a disputed lead, which significantly alters the dynamic of the race. Poetry Man (4) is a confirmed front-runner who likes to dominate, but his jumping is suspect under pressure (unseated twice in his last five starts). Halfway House Lad (8) also likes to force the issue.
If these two engage early on this ground, they will likely cut each other’s throats. This setup heavily favours the stalkers who can travel within themselves and produce a challenge after the final fence.
The Market Leaders
Wal Bucks (1) is the class act of the field, consistent and reliable (HRB 263). However, asking a horse to concede weight all round while carrying 12-0 in deep mud is a massive statistical ask. He tends to find one too good in the closing stages, and today the weight differential looks insurmountable against improving stayers.
Slaney Opera (3) tops the ratings (HRB 278) and comes here off a win at Sedgefield. The Jefferson/Hamilton combination boasts a 40% strike rate with this horse, which demands respect. However, Sedgefield is a sharp, undulating track that often favours speedier types. Kelso is a grinding, galloping track. Transferring form from Good-Soft at Sedgefield to Heavy at Kelso is not a given. He is a risk at the price.
The Selection: Big Zouk (2)
The most logical answer to this puzzle is Big Zouk.
Trained by Nicky Richards (19% track strike rate), he arrives off a career-best win at Ayr on Heavy ground over 3m. The run comment “kept on strongly” is the vital clue. He has proven he handles the surface and has the requisite stamina.
Critically, he sits in the “stalker” profile. Brian Hughes can allow the front-runners to expend their energy in the mud and make his move approaching the straight. Receiving 8lbs from Wal Bucks, the physics are in his favour.
The Danger / Forecast Play
If the pace collapses completely, Wearelongterm (6) becomes interesting. He is a habitual hold-up horse who lacks a killer instinct for the win (0/20 recently) but often stays on past beaten horses to grab a place. Carrying just 10-4, he is the sensible option to chase Big Zouk home for the forecast.
Verdict
In a race likely to be decided by lung capacity and mud-larking ability, Big Zouk is the solid proposition.
Win: Big Zouk (IRE)
Forecast: Big Zouk to beat Wearelongterm