The ground at Chepstow this afternoon is Soft, Heavy in places. Throw in a bit of light Welsh rain and a trip just shy of three miles, and the 3.45 handicap chase becomes a brutal test of stamina. You don’t just need a horse that stays; you need a horse that is ridden to conserve every ounce of energy.
When you map the pace in this twelve-runner field, a glaring pattern emerges. We have five horses who desperately want to go forward and force the issue.
Enjoy Dallen likes to lead, but he’s a 12-year-old lumping top weight of 12st in the mud. No Tackle is a confirmed front-runner who usually needs to dictate to show his best. Add Astronomic View, Not Sure, and The Big Reveal to the mix—all of whom have a habit of racing prominently or disputing—and you have a recipe for a burnout.
If they take each other on early, they will cut their own throats. This race will be won by a horse sitting quietly in mid-division, waiting for the leaders to fold down the long home straight.
Taking on the Favourites
The market has this wrong. The Big Reveal is currently heading the betting at 9/2. Yes, he looked the winner before taking a heavy fall two out last time, but you have to read the form book coldly. He’s operating off an Official Rating of 90—a massive 19lb below the race average. Backing a poorly handicapped horse fresh off a heavy fall, in a race where he’ll likely get caught up in an early speed duel, is terrible business.
Similarly, No Tackle (100/30) is consistent, but taking a short price on a front-runner in a field packed with early pace is mathematical suicide. He simply won’t get his own way today.
The Value Play
Everything points to Idefix De Ciergues at 8/1.
Look past his recent form figures of 4-4. This horse sits massive on the underlying metrics. On the HorseRaceBase Master Ratings, he is lightyears ahead of this field, posting a 280.9 (the next best is No Tackle at 253.6).
More importantly, his running style fits today’s puzzle perfectly. He’s a tracker. Ben Jones can drop him into mid-division, keep him out of the early war of attrition, and let him pick up the pieces when the front rank inevitably hits the wall. At 8/1, he is a glaring overlay.
If you want a saver or a forecast partner, look at Eaton Anne (12/1). Olly Murphy and Sean Bowen are operating at a 27% strike rate together over the last two years. Like Idefix, he generally tracks the pace and is tactically positioned to benefit from a late-race collapse.
The Verdict: Back Idefix De Ciergues to outstay them.