Four runners. Heavy ground. Proper Grade 2.
This won’t be about hard-luck stories or traffic problems. It’ll be about position and control.
Rubaud (FR)
Solid Grade 2 performer and a previous course winner. His profile is clear: go forward, dictate, grind. The ratings have him on top and his record around sharp right-handed tracks is strong. On heavy ground over this trip, being in front matters. If he gets an uncontested lead, he’ll make it a test and won’t fold easily.
He’s tough and genuine. You know exactly what you’re getting.
Alexei (GER)
The favourite and arguably the class act. He’s built his reputation in competitive handicaps, travelling strongly and finishing well off a proper gallop. The question is whether this race gives him that setup.
In a four-runner field, it could turn tactical. If they steady it early, he may need to show a sharper turn of foot than he’s been asked for before at this level. He’s talented, but he’s short enough in the market.
Secret Squirrel
Capable on his day but comes with jumping doubts. Two falls in his recent record are hard to ignore in a race like this. He has the ability to get involved, but he needs a clean round and pressure on the leader.
Intellotto (IRE)
Out of his depth on the figures and recent form. Hard to make a serious case.
Verdict
Small fields on heavy ground at Wincanton favour those who control the race. That points firmly towards Rubaud.
Alexei may have the bigger engine in the long term, but today’s setup looks made for the proven front-runner. If Rubaud gets into a rhythm in front, this becomes his race to lose.
Straight call: Rubaud to win.