Musselburgh’s 4.20 on Sunday, the Famous Five Handicap Chase, presents a fascinating tactical puzzle over the 2m 7f trip. While several veterans arrive with solid course credentials, the race looks set to be dominated by a progressive youngster from a yard that excels at picking up northern prizes.
Jus De Citron is the clear standout for Harry Derham. This seven-year-old made a highly encouraging transition to fences at Newcastle last month, staying on strongly to finish a close third over a shorter trip. That performance screamed for a greater test of stamina, which he gets today. He is the least exposed horse in the line-up, and with the Derham yard operating at a strike rate of over 20%, his presence after a 500-mile round trip from Lambourn is a significant signal of intent.
The main danger to the selection is Jet Legs, who returns to the scene of previous success and, crucially, is back down to his last winning mark of 113. He is a proven “mud-lark” and if the forecast rain and snow turn the ground testing, he will be very difficult to pass if Ryan Mania can grab an easy lead.
Special Rate is the class act on ratings and will undoubtedly relish the soft ground, but he carries a major statistical burden. His profile shows a glaring preference for left-handed tracks, boasting a perfect zero-from-five record when turning right. On a sharp, right-handed circuit like Musselburgh, that is a flaw that is hard to ignore at a short price.
For those looking for a bit of value, Bridge Court is interesting. Sandy Thomson has a phenomenal record when sending a single runner to a chase meeting, and this maiden has been knocking on the door at Catterick. Receiving nearly two stone from the top weights, he could easily outrun his odds in what looks like a steadily-run affair.
Ultimately, the potential for improvement lies with Jus De Citron. He looks a Class 3 animal competing in a Class 4, and his finishing kick should be enough to see off the more exposed stayers in the closing stages.