Forget the market noise. At Gowran Park on Heavy ground, the only currency that matters is stamina. This 2m 4f handicap hurdle isn’t a beauty contest; it’s a war of attrition.
Here is the no-nonsense form and pace breakdown.
The Pace Map: A Burn-Up is Coming
Gowran is a galloping track, but the hill finds everyone out. Today, we have three committed front-runners: Grandero Bello (2), Dancing Jeremy (6), and Jacovec Cavern (10).
When you have three horses who want the lead in a bog, they tend to cut each other’s throats. This pace setup is a gift for the stalkers—horses that can sit 5th or 6th, stay out of the kickback, and pounce when the leaders hit the wall at the second-last.
The Contenders: Who Survives?
1. The “Form” Banker: Themanintheanorak (5)
This is the logical starting point. He won comfortably at Fairyhouse just 11 days ago on heavy ground.
Pros: He is 100% proven in these conditions. He stays the trip, acts on the ground, and is race-fit.
Cons: A 7lb rise is never easy, but Michael Kenneally’s 5lb claim wipes most of that out. He is the solid, sensible play.
2. The “Class” Angle: Grimaud (3)
Ignore the “0-for-7” handicap stat; look at the run. He was travelling like the winner at Navan last month before falling at the last.
Pros: He’s a course winner. Gordon Elliott has booked a 5lb claimer to get his weight down to a manageable 11-7. If he stands up, he has the class to cruise past the grinders.
Cons: He has to prove he can jump under pressure after that fall.
3. The “Lightweight” Sleeper: Laxxio (12)
Carrying 11-0 in a swamp is a massive advantage.
Pros: He is unexposed (only 3 runs). His 3rd at Punchestown on heavy ground was an eye-catcher—he wasn’t knocked about and finished strong. By Nathaniel, he is bred to stay all day.
Cons: Lacks experience, but Danny Mullins is the best tactical rider at this track.
4. The “Trap”: The King Of Prs (7)
On paper, he looks well-handicapped (134 chaser running off 114 hurdles).
The Reality: He is a 2-mile specialist. Asking a speed horse to slog 2m 4f up the Gowran hill on Heavy ground is a massive gamble. He might travel best to the last, but don’t be surprised if he empties quickly.
The Verdict
The pace will be hot, the ground is testing, and the weight will tell.
WIN: Grimaud (3) – He has the class edge. The fall masked a winning effort last time, and this setup (strong pace to aim at) is perfect for him.
DANGER: Themanintheanorak (5) – The reliable yardstick. He won’t stop, but might just lack the turn of foot of the selection.
EACH-WAY: Laxxio (12) – With 11-0 on his back, he will be finishing faster than anything else.
Summary: Back Grimaud to make amends for his fall, and save on Laxxio to exploit his featherweight. Avoid The King Of Prs—he’s a speedster in a stamina test.