Date: Sunday 15th Feb 2026
Race: 1.42 Newcastle (Class 6 Handicap, 1m2f)
Let’s be honest—it’s a Sunday Class 6 handicap at Newcastle. We aren’t looking for the next Derby winner; we are looking for the one horse that isn’t completely exposed or on the decline.
The data maps are screaming “caution” on this race, predicting a pace burn-up that supposedly suits the closers. I’ve looked at the charts, I’ve read the Timeform warnings, and I’m telling you to ignore them. Here is why the favourite is still the only serious bet on the card.
The Pace Trap
The pace forecast is ‘Strong’. We have Hijo De La Luna (1) and Bavaria Iron (4) drawn low. They are one-dimensional front-runners who will likely cut each other’s throats trying to hold the rail.
Usually, this sets it up for a swooper from the back. The computers are pointing to Sweet Cicely (8) as the beneficiary. On paper, it makes sense. In reality? She’s been off the track for 174 days and is 0-from-17. Relying on a rusty maiden to weave through traffic in a basement handicap is a quick way to lose money.
The Selection: Highfield Comrade (5)
Odds: ~2/1
Verdict: Win
This horse is the only runner in the field with an upward trajectory. While the others are stagnating, he has posted a win and a solid 3rd in his last two starts.
Crucially, he is drawn out in Stall 12.
In a race with a frantic pace on the inside rail, being drawn wide is a blessing, not a curse. Ben Robinson can keep him in clean air, let the low-drawn leaders burn themselves out, and make his move late without getting boxed in.
The Quinn yard has also applied First-Time Cheekpieces. In this grade, that is rarely a defensive move; it’s a statement of intent to sharpen the horse up and get the job done.
The Danger: Showmedemoney (3)
If you need a forecast filler, this is it. He is a Course & Distance winner who knows every grain of this Tapeta surface. He’s honest, but he’s carrying 9st 8lb. Giving weight away in a fast-run race is tough, and he lacks the unexposed potential of the favourite. He’ll run his race, but he likely finds one too good.
The Trader’s Pick: Millbuie (10)
Keep an eye on the exchange prices for Millbuie. The data shows he often trades at 50% of his starting price in-running. He travels like a winner but rarely finds enough off the bridle (0-20 lifetime). If you are trading in-play, look to lay him off once he hits the front—he usually finds a way to get beaten.
The Bottom Line
Don’t overcomplicate a simple race. Highfield Comrade has the form, the draw to stay out of trouble, and the gear change to seal the deal.
Win: Highfield Comrade
Forecast: Highfield Comrade to beat Showmedemoney