If you’re heading to Punchestown this Sunday, bring your stoutest boots. After 32mm of rain in a single 24-hour window, the track is officially Heavy. In a five-runner field for the Listed Sheila Bourke Novice Hurdle (15:00), the form book is only half the story; this will be a tactical slog where jumping efficiency and energy conservation are the only currencies that matter.
The Big Rematch: Navan Redux
The focal point of the race is a rematch between Zeus Power and Lazare De Star. At Navan 29 days ago, Lazare De Star looked the winner all the way to the final 100 yards, only for Zeus Power to grind him down in the mud.
Lazare De Star (7/4): He’s the “class” prospect here with a raw RPR of 143. Gordon Elliott has reached for a first-time hood today—a clear signal he wants the horse to settle better and find that missing 5% at the business end.
Zeus Power (3/1): Joseph O’Brien’s charge is a street fighter. He’s already proven he handles the “Soft to Heavy” transition better than most and boasts an ultra-consistent record going Right-Handed.
The Wildcards
Heads Up (13/8 Fav): On paper, he’s the one to beat. He was 2nd in a Champion Bumper, which is Grade 1 form. However, he boiled over and weakened quickly at Cheltenham last time. If the first-time hood settles his nerves and he gets a soft lead, he could win by the length of the straight—but at current prices, he’s a risky proposition in deep ground.
Jony R (18/1): Don’t dismiss the outsider. He is 2-for-2 going Right-Handed and arrived here after a dominant “easy” win on heavy ground. If the big three cut each other’s throats in a tactical battle, he’s exactly the type to pick up the pieces.
The Tactical Pace Map
With Timeform forecasting a “Weak Pace,” expect a game of cat-and-mouse:
Heads Up will likely be forced to lead by default.
Lazare De Star will sit in the pocket, waiting to pounce.
Zeus Power will be the one applying the pressure as they turn for home.
The Verdict
While Zeus Power won the battle last time, the 5lb weight swing and the tactical layout of Punchestown favour LAZARE DE STAR. If Jack Kennedy can get him jumping fluently in that new hood, his superior cruising speed should see him reverse the Navan form.
Selection: Lazare De Star (Win)
Value Alternative: Jony R (Each-Way)