If you are looking for a summer cruise, look elsewhere. Today’s 16:02 David Trundley Artist At Punchestown Novice Handicap Hurdle is a brutal 2m 6½f test on Heavy ground. The pace forecast is “Strong,” which, in this deep mud, is a death sentence for those who commit too early.
The strategy is simple: ignore the flash, find the mud-larks, and look for those carrying a light burden in the uphill finish.
### The “Burn-Up” Pace Map
Expect Kir (5) and American Jukebox (1) to lead the charge. American Jukebox is a recent winner but struggled when pressured at Thurles. Kir was cruising at Limerick before a final-flight blunder; however, the projected strong pace today makes him a risky proposition at the top of the weights.
### The Selection: Nettuno Italia (No. 8)
Nettuno Italia is the percentage call. He is the only horse in this field with a Course and Distance (CD) win on heavy ground in the last three weeks. He dismantled a 13-runner field here 20 days ago, winning “easily” under hands and heels.
While he is up 9lbs for that effort, he still carries only 10st 5lb. In a race where the early pace will be hot, his ability to sit mid-pack and pounce late is his biggest asset. He isn’t just a mud-lark; he is a Punchestown specialist.
### The Danger: Sean Mc (No. 11)
If you want to play the weight game, Sean Mc is your horse. He carries the minimum 10st 0lb and has been “knocking on the door” with two consecutive second-place finishes at this track. He was undone by a mistake two out last time, but if he keeps his feet, he is the biggest threat to the selection.
### The Class Act: From The Ashes (No. 2)
You can’t ignore a Charles Byrnes runner in a handicap. From The Ashes comes here off a career-best win at Fairyhouse and is the highest-rated horse in the race. The concern? 11st 10lb. Carrying that through the Punchestown sludge while giving nearly 20lbs to the bottom-weights is a huge ask. He is the best horse, but conditions are stacked against him.
### Verdict
Nettuno Italia (8) – Win
Sean Mc (11) – Each-Way
From The Ashes (2) – Place
The Bottom Line: Look for Danny Gilligan to keep Nettuno Italia out of the early speed battle before picking up the pieces in the final half-mile.