Monday night at Dunstall Park throws up a fascinating tactical puzzle in the 7:30, a Class 5 Fillies’ Handicap over the extended mile. On paper, it looks like a standard low-grade affair, but the pace map screams opportunity.
The data tells us one thing loud and clear: there is no pace in this race. Timeform has flagged the pace forecast as “Very Weak,” and in a small field at Wolverhampton, that usually turns the event into a sprint from the two-furlong pole.
The Pace Angle: Three On Thursday
If you want to back the horse who gets the easiest trip, look no further than Three On Thursday. She is the only natural front-runner in a field of hold-up horses. Dropping back from 12f to 9.5f, she has the stamina to kick on, and with Harry Vigors taking 7lbs off, she carries a featherweight. If she gets a soft lead and dictates a crawling pace, she could be gone before the others wake up.
The Trap: Dandy Khan
You will see Dandy Khan well-fancied after winning four of her last five starts. She is a winning machine at the moment, but buyers beware. Her run comments are littered with “slowly away” and “held up.” In a race likely to be run at a pedestrian gallop, missing the break is a death sentence. She will have to pass the entire field in a sprint finish, which is a massive ask at these odds.
The Selection: Renesmee
Despite the pace concerns, the smart money has to be on Renesmee.
Two factors stand out:
The Drop in Class: She is down from Class 4 company to a modest Class 5. She has the highest back-class in the field.
The Jockey: Apprentice Kyle McHugh has ridden her three times and won three times. That 100% strike rate is not a coincidence; he clearly holds the key to this mare.
While she usually comes from off the pace, the class edge and the unique rapport with her pilot should be enough to reel in the leaders.
The Verdict
Ignore the recent form figures of Renesmee. The return of her winning jockey and the drop in grade make her the standout proposition. Three On Thursday is the clear danger on the front end, and Magic Runner will get a lovely trip on the rail, but class should prevail.
Recommendation:
Win: Renesmee
Forecast: Renesmee to beat Three On Thursday