Carlisle’s 2:35 Handicap Chase on Monday presents a classic punting conundrum: do you back the “steamroller” in the form of his life, or the “class act” dropping back into calmer waters? Over three miles and 18 fences, there is nowhere to hide on this stiff, galloping track.
The Form Horse: Upfordebate
It is impossible to ignore Upfordebate. Patrick Neville’s charge is seeking a remarkable fifth win in six starts. He arrives at Carlisle following two dominant displays at Sedgefield, and while a 9lb rise in the weights is a hefty ask, he won “going away” last time out. With the champion jockey Brian Hughes booked for a track he knows better than anyone, the 15/8 favourite will have plenty of supporters.
The Tactical Edge: Saint Davy
However, the value may lie with top-weight Saint Davy. Despite carrying 12-2, the predicted “weak” pace of this race plays right into his hands. He ran a cracker on his return at Windsor last month, finishing third in a much deeper contest. That run suggests he has retained his engine, and in a race that could turn into a tactical sprint, his superior cruising speed should prove decisive. He is a course-and-distance winner who won’t be bothered by the Good to Soft ground.
The Dark Horse: Ayiko
Irish raider Ayiko remains the big unknown. His chase debut at Haydock was a clear “education” over a trip too short. Moving back up to three miles is exactly what he needs, and Stuart Crawford doesn’t send runners across the Irish Sea for the scenery. He is unexposed and could easily blow this field apart if his jumping holds up.
Verdict
Upfordebate is the percentage call, but SAINT DAVY is the class play. If Jonjo O’Neill Jr. can keep him handy and out of trouble, his back-class should see him outstay the progressive favourite on the climb to the line.
Selection: Saint Davy (Win)
Danger: Upfordebate