The market is dominated by Ben Pauling’s Bank On Frank, currently trading around 7/4. While he made a satisfactory start to his chasing career when finishing second at Fontwell in November, that form is hardly bombproof for a Class 5 handicap. He returns from a 94-day absence, and his run comments from point-to-points and hurdles often feature phrases like “gradually weakened” or “lost position,” suggesting he is not one to take a short price about in soft ground.
The value lies with HOT ROD LINCOLN, who looks to have been targeted specifically for a return to fences at this time of year.
His recent form figures (46 over hurdles) are uninspiring on the surface, but a closer look at the Run Comments via HorseRaceBase reveals these were likely preparatory efforts. At Lingfield earlier this month, he showed “brief headway” before tailing off, a classic sign of a horse building fitness without having a hard race. Crucially, he now switches back to the larger obstacles, a discipline in which he recorded his last victory almost exactly a year ago (February 8, 2025) at Uttoxeter.
That win came on heavy ground off an Official Rating of 91; he runs today off 92. The setup here is arguably more favourable than that Uttoxeter victory. Timeform’s Pace Forecast is “Weak,” and the specific pace hint notes that a steadily run race will serve Hot Rod Lincoln much better than his rivals. In his Uttoxeter win, he raced prominently, led before the last, and stayed on well.
The booking of Sean Bowen is a significant statement of intent. The HRB data assigns Bowen a Jockey Rating of 37.8 for this race—significantly higher than any other pilot in the field (the next best is 21.6). With a 23% strike rate at Southwell, Bowen is likely to utilize the weak pace to dictate matters from the front or sit handy.
If he can replicate his chase form from twelve months ago, disregarding the recent hurdle pipe-openers, he is the clear handicap blot in the race.
BEST BET:
HOT ROD LINCOLN EW if you can get 3 places.