HE KNOWS BETTER will likely dominate the market at around 9/4, with the Sean Bowen/Warren Greatrex combination boasting a 38% strike rate with chase favourites. However, while consistent, he has developed a habit of finding one too good, finishing second in his last two completed starts. The HorseRaceBase run comments note he “kept on one pace” at Warwick and “faded” when headed late on at Ffos Las. Given his tendency to race lazily or lack a turn of foot at the business end, he looks worth taking on at the prices.
DISGUISEDLIMIT (6/1) makes significantly more appeal from a value perspective. His most recent effort at Ayr can be marked up; he dropped back to 2m on Heavy ground, a test that placed too much emphasis on speed in gruelling conditions. Despite leading, he was shaken up after four out and found “no extra” run-in.
Returning to 2m4½f today is a major positive. Two starts back at Musselburgh over this intermediate trip, he posted a solid speed figure when finishing second, only headed near the finish. The application of a first-time tongue-tie is highly significant here. Given the run comments of “headed near finish” and “no extra” in his recent profile, the wind operation aid could be the catalyst required to help him sustain his effort through the line.
Furthermore, the Timeform pace analysis explicitly highlights that an “Even” pace forecast “should favour Disguisedlimit much more than He Knows Better.” At Southwell, getting into a rhythm on the front end is often advantageous. With the ground currently Soft, the combination of the step back up in trip, the tactical pace advantage, and the headgear application suggests he is overpriced compared to the favourite.
BEST BET:
DISGUISEDLIMIT EW.