Selection: GEORGI GIRL
The market is dominated by Molto Bene, who heads the betting at 5/2 following a career-best effort at Newbury. While her HorseRaceBase (HRB) Last Run speed rating of 91.2 sets the standard, she has been raised 3lb for a defeat and can occasionally be clumsy, having “nodded” at the 10th fence in her previous start. Given the forecast soft ground, her price feels short enough in a race where few arrive in peak form.
The value appears to lie with Georgi Girl, currently available around 13/2. On strict speed ratings, she is the only runner capable of matching the favourite’s recent output. She posted an HRB speed figure of 86.5 at Windsor last month—significantly clear of the remainder of the field, with the next best (Theonewedreamof) recording just 69.4.
Her performance at Windsor was better than the bare result suggests. Racing over 2m 4½f on soft ground, she travelled powerfully to dispute the lead before the second last, only to be outstayed late on. The switch to Ludlow is a key positive; this is a sharper track than Windsor, placing less emphasis on stamina and more on cruising speed.
Furthermore, Timeform forecasts a “Weak Pace.” Georgi Girl showed plenty of tactical speed at Windsor to get into contention four out, whereas rivals like Theonewedreamof are often noted as “held up early” in HRB run comments. If the pace is pedestrian, Georgi Girl is well-positioned to get the jump on the field turning for home.
Having dropped 1lb for that Windsor effort, she sits on a mark of 120. When you isolate the speed figures, the gap between her and the favourite is negligible, yet the price differential is substantial. She represents the efficient play against the field.
BEST BET:
3.05 Ludlow: Georgi Girl EW.