The market is dominated by Westlain, who arrives on the back of a convincing success at Huntingdon. While visually impressive, he has been hit with a 9lb rise for beating a small field of seven, and his price of around 13/8 leaves little room for error. Diamonds Galore is respected given Nicky Henderson’s 17% strike rate with handicap debutants, but she has a history of finding one too good at short prices, notably when turned over at 4/11 and 4/6 earlier in her career.
The value lies with SENSE OF REASON, who makes his handicap debut off what looks a workable mark of 108.
His latest effort, finishing fourth of 18 in a Maiden Hurdle at Lingfield (Soft), was significantly better than the bare form suggests. The HorseRaceBase run comments note that he made a mistake at the third hurdle but rallied to “keep on run-in,” eventually beaten just 7.5 lengths. That performance generated a Speed Rating of 83.0. To put that figure in context, the favourite Westlain recorded figures of 67 and below prior to his breakout win last time. Sense Of Reason is starting his handicap campaign from a higher distinct base of performance.
Furthermore, he has a solid flat pedigree (10f winner) and has shown a tendency to finish his races strongly—HRB analysis flags him as a horse that “Stayed on” in three of his last six outings. With the ground riding Soft, his ability to handle the conditions (proven at Lingfield and Huntingdon) is a positive. Charlie Fellowes has found a realistic opening here, and with the likelihood of an even pace allowing him to utilise his flat speed late on, he represents the clear value alternative to the penalised favourite.
BEST BET:
SENSE OF REASON EW.