The market is dominated by James The Brave, who arrives off a career-best win at this venue two weeks ago. While his heavy-ground credentials are undeniable, he was allowed to make virtually all that day. A repetition of those tactics looks difficult here; the HorseRaceBase run comments for Rebel Cowgirl (“Led”, “Led, mistake 5th”) and Diamond Dollar (“Disputed lead 3 out”) suggest a contested pace is highly probable. At 5/2, the favourite looks short enough given the likelihood of early pressure.
In a race liable to set up for a finisher, JOHNNY CAKES makes considerable appeal at double-figure odds.
P.J. Rothwell’s seven-year-old is a course specialist, having won the second division of this corresponding race last year. While he carries more weight today, his performance at Fairyhouse on New Year’s Day—finishing third of 24 on soft-to-heavy ground—demonstrates he is competitive off his current mark of 88.
Critically, the Timeform Smart Stats highlight Rothwell’s specific targeting of this meeting (two winners in the past 10 runnings), and the horse’s run style is perfectly suited to today’s projected race shape. HRB run comments consistently note him making “headway approaching straight” or “progress after 4 out,” indicating he requires a stiff test of stamina to be seen to best effect.
His latest effort at Navan can be marked up; he made progress three out but couldn’t sustain it in a race where the front-runners didn’t come back to the field. With a stronger gallop virtually guaranteed here by the presence of James The Brave and Rebel Cowgirl, Johnny Cakes should be able to sit off the pace and pick up the pieces late on.
The disparity between his price and the favourite’s is too wide given the course form and the anticipated pace meltdown.
BEST BET:
JOHNNY CAKES Each Way