The market is dominated by Venetia Williams’ Falco Des Pins, who is priced around the 6/4 mark following a third-place finish at Taunton. While the application of a wind operation prior to that run seemed to elicit improvement, his finishing effort was merely adequate rather than potent (“stayed on, no telling impression”). Given he remains a maiden after six attempts and faces a sharp drop in trip here, his price offers little equity for a horse that has frequently weakened in the closing stages.
Preference is for COUNT ADHEMAR at the available 6/1, who looks to have been campaigned with this specific drop in distance in mind.
His chase debut at Catterick last month (Class 5, 2m3f) was far more encouraging than the bare result of fifth suggests. The HorseRaceBase run comments note that he “led… joined for second 2 out… faded run-in.” He travelled with zest and jumped competently on the front end but simply failed to see out the extended trip on soft ground. Crucially, despite fading late, he recorded a Last Run (LR) speed figure of 58.9, significantly higher than Falco Des Pins’ 50.9 at Taunton.
The move back to 2m at Ludlow is a major positive. Ludlow is a sharp, right-handed track that historically favours prominent racers—a bias supported by Timeform’s pace hint. Count Adhemar possesses the natural speed to dictate or sit handy in a race where the pace forecast is weak.
Furthermore, Donald McCain’s runner was trading at 50% or less of his Betfair SP in running at Catterick, indicative of a horse that travels like the winner before stamina ebbs. Over this minimum trip, with soft ground placing a premium on that ability to travel through the mud, he represents the clear value in the race against a favourite who may find things happening too quickly.
BEST BET:
COUNT ADHEMAR EW.