The market is dominated by Manigod, currently trading at 7/4. While Warren Greatrex’s runner has been consistent, posting figures of 2-2-2, he has found one too good on every occasion. His latest effort at Fontwell saw him travel well but unable to put the race to bed, and given he is often ridden with patience, he looks vulnerable at a short price in a race where tactics could prove decisive.
The value alternative is FRESH KICKS, available around 4/1.
The critical angle here is the projected pace scenario. Timeform forecasts a “Very Weak” pace, which significantly upgrades the chances of horses capable of racing prominently. A look at the HorseRaceBase run comments for Fresh Kicks confirms he has the necessary tactical speed; he “made all” to win at Plumpton in December and “disputed lead” early on at Kempton. Conversely, the favourite Manigod and market rival Name Me Nicely are typically held up, which could leave them poorly positioned if this turns into a sprint from the second-last.
Fresh Kicks drops significantly in grade here. After his maiden win, he was pitched into a Class 2 at Ascot (where he failed to stay 3m) and a competitive Class 3 at Windsor last time. In that Windsor race, he travelled strongly to two out before fading late on. Dropping to a Class 4, 0-120 contest represents much calmer waters.
He tops the HorseRaceBase ratings with a total of 271.5, slightly clear of the favourite (267.9), and his Plumpton win was achieved on Soft ground, confirming conditions are no issue. With the distinct possibility of an uncontested lead or a box-seat position on the rail, he looks overpriced to capitalise on the drop in class.
Best Bet:
FRESH KICKS