Race Summary
This Grade 3 Mares Hurdle has been significantly altered by the withdrawal of the likely favourite, Cousin Kate. This leaves a field of 6 runners on Soft/Heavy ground. The pace map is distinct: Pebble Bleu is a confirmed front-runner who has made all in her last two starts, and World Of Fortunes also likes to race prominently. This should ensure a genuine gallop, which will test stamina on this heavy ground.
The race effectively splits into two tiers: the established Graded performers (Lantry Lady, World Of Fortunes) and those stepping up significantly in class (Baby Kate, Pebble Bleu). Lantry Lady drops in class after a respectable 4th in the Galmoy Hurdle (Grade 2) and faces only her own sex here. Baby Kate, despite the Willie Mullins connection, is officially rated 122—10lbs inferior to Lantry Lady and 13lbs below World Of Fortunes—yet trades at a short price due to connections.
Value View
Top Rated on Merit:
Lantry Lady (FR)
Case: Highest Official Rating (132) and holds a Timeform Master Rating of 151 (adjusted). Her recent 4th behind Home By The Lee in a Grade 2 was a far superior speed figure effort compared to anything her rivals have achieved recently. The return to mares-only company is a massive relief, and she acts well on heavy ground.
Most Likely Winner:
Lantry Lady (FR)
Rationale: With Cousin Kate out, she is the clear standout on back class. While she can be fragile and has been below par at Punchestown previously, the opposition is thin. She likely sits off the pace set by Pebble Bleu and has the class to put this bed in the final furlong.
Best Value at Current Prices:
World Of Fortunes (IRE) (Approx 3/1 or better)
Rationale: Timeform Top Rated (155). If you can forgive the flat run at Doncaster (ground likely too quick/trip too long for tactics), her win at Ballinrobe and 2nd at Limerick (Listed) give her a strong form book. She stays 3m, so a hard-run 2m4f on soft ground plays to her strengths. If Lantry Lady underperforms, she is the only other runner with proven numbers to capitalize.
Lay / Oppose:
Baby Kate (IRE)
Rationale: A classic case of “Trainer Tax.” She trades around 11/4 purely because she is trained by W.P. Mullins.
The Data: Her Official Rating is 122. She meets Lantry Lady (132) and World Of Fortunes (135) off level weights. Statistically, she should be a 10/1 shot in this company based on adjusted ratings. She needs to improve nearly a stone to win, making her a poor value proposition at the top of the market.