The market for this Class 5 contest is understandably dominated by Asa (FR), who seeks to defend the crown she won in this race twelve months ago. Philip Kirby’s mare arrives in good heart following a workmanlike success over fences at Catterick nine days ago, and a 5lb rise for that victory is manageable given she won this contest off a mark of 95 last year. However, her recent victory was in a chase, and at odds of 11/8, the market has fully factored in her chance while ignoring the potential tactical pitfalls of a small-field tactical affair.
At a much bigger price, it is worth chancing INNISFREE LASS, whose recent form figures obscure her potential back over the smaller obstacles.
Stuart Edmunds’ mare has looked devoid of confidence over fences recently, most recently finishing a distant third of four at Catterick earlier this month. However, the switch back to hurdles is a significant angle. It is notable that she won this corresponding race in 2024 on Heavy ground, proving both her aptitude for the surface and the specific demands of the Southwell track. While she is effectively 8lb higher than that victory, her form in this sphere is far superior to her chasing efforts; Timeform notes she has won two of her last three starts over hurdles, albeit with those runs coming two seasons ago.
The pace map offers a potential edge. Timeform forecasts a “Very Weak” pace, suggesting a tactical, stop-start affair. Queen Of Steel is the likely pace angle, but a look at the HorseRaceBase run comments for Innisfree Lass shows she is capable of forcing the issue, with notes such as “led” and “handy” appearing frequently in her history. In a race where the favourite prefers to come from off the pace—Asa was noted as “held up in rear” during her 2024 win—Innisfree Lass could find herself in a prime position to dictate or sit second in a steadily run race, getting first run on the market leader.
Stuart Edmunds boasts a healthy 22% strike rate with staying hurdlers, suggesting he knows exactly when to target these stamina tests. With the ground conditions in her favour and a return to her preferred discipline, she looks overpriced compared to a favourite who has to transition back from fences quickly.
Best Bet:
INNISFREE LASS EW if you can get 3 places.