The market is dominated by Jack Channon’s Silver State, who is trading at a prohibitive 5/4 following a dominant 5.5-length victory at Newcastle just four days ago. While visually impressive, he enjoyed an uncontested lead that day. Today’s pace forecast is significantly different; Loma Express and Port Darwin have both shown a tendency to lead or press the pace in recent starts, and with a Timeform Pace Forecast of “Strong,” the favourite is unlikely to be granted an easy solo on the front end. Furthermore, turning out quickly under a penalty on Kempton’s “Standard to Slow” surface—which often tests stamina more thoroughly than Newcastle—makes him worth opposing at the prices.
The clear value alternative is MARIA DA SILVA, who is available at 9/1 despite a profile that suggests she should be much closer to the head of the market.
She arrives on a hat-trick after two course-and-distance victories at Newcastle. Crucially, the HorseRaceBase (HRB) data highlights her as the top-rated runner in the field with a Total Rating of 279.1, significantly clear of the favourite (259.4). This metric often identifies horses whose cumulative form lines are stronger than raw speed figures suggest.
Tactically, the setup looks ideal. Her HRB run comments from her last win (“in touch with leaders… travelling well… asserted towards finish”) indicate she possesses the tactical versatility to sit just behind the predicted burn-up. While Silver State and Loma Express may compromise each other’s chances on the front end, Maria Da Silva has demonstrated the ability to settle and finish strongly. Her finishing splits at Newcastle were sharp, and the switch to Kempton’s right-handed circuit should pose no issues given her balanced action.
Andrew Balding’s filly is effectively running off a mark of 71, which looks lenient given her upward trajectory. With the pace map favouring a horse that can stalk and pounce, and the data rating her the most robust horse in the race, the disparity between her 9/1 price and the favourite’s odds is too large to ignore.
Advice:
BEST BET:
MARIA DA SILVA EW