The market is dominated by Atmosphere, who arrives in solid form following a course-and-distance win in October and a creditable third here in November. While he is the most likely winner on raw numbers—boasting a solid HorseRaceBase (HRB) speed figure of 67.9 last time out—he is a horse that often travels better than he finishes. Timeform data notes he traded at a quarter of his SP in running last time before being outpaced, suggesting he lacks a decisive turn of foot. At odds of 15/8, the value lies in opposing him with a horse capable of improving past a stagnant mark.
MIDNIGHTS DREAM (14/1) looks significantly overpriced given the hidden promise of his latest run. Having joined Joseph Parr from Roger Varian, he was unsuited by the drop to 7f at Newcastle 18 days ago. Despite the inadequate trip, the HRB run comments note he “stayed on final furlong” to snatch third at the post, recording a highly respectable speed rating of 72.3—actually higher than the favourite’s last run.
That effort at Newcastle looks like a calculated sharpener for a return to this mile trip. His previous run over this C&D in January saw him race too keenly after a break, eventually fading late on. With that freshness out of his system and the benefit of the Newcastle run, he is primed to peak.
From a tactical perspective, the draw in stall 8 is slightly wide, but with King Of Fury (stall 9) and Eazy On The Eye (stall 10) likely to push forward to clear their wide berths, the pace should be genuine enough to stretch the field. This setup suits Midnights Dream, who can tuck in and utilise his finishing kick. Apprentice Kyle McHugh takes off a valuable 7lb, effectively reducing his mark to a dangerous 64. In a race where the market leaders have few secrets from the handicapper, he represents the clear value play.
BEST BET:
MIDNIGHTS DREAM EW