The market for this Class 6 handicap is dominated by Who’s On First, who is priced around 5/4 following a front-running victory at Chelmsford. While he won readily that day, he carries a 6lb penalty here and drops back to seven furlongs. His finishing speed at Chelmsford was sustained rather than explosive, suggesting the mile suited him perfectly. Dropping in trip while carrying extra weight makes him a vulnerable favourite, particularly if he faces pressure for the lead early on.
The value lies with FRANKALI, currently trading around 9/2. Her recent form figures (68635) mask a performance at Wolverhampton last time out (2nd February) that was significantly better than the bare result suggests.
On that occasion, the HorseRaceBase run comments note she “took keen hold” and made a mid-race move to regain the lead after being headed, effectively making two separate efforts in the race. Timeform analysis correctly identifies that she “raced too close to a strong pace.” Despite this inefficient energy distribution, she was still in contention entering the final furlong before fading late on the slow surface.
Crucially, the pace forecast for today’s contest is “Very Weak” (Timeform). From Stall 1, jockey Stevie Donohoe has the perfect tactical platform to dictate matters or sit just off the speed without expending the energy she wasted at Wolverhampton. Kempton’s inner 7f track favors horses who can hold their position on the rail, and Frankali’s HRB speed rating of 56.9 from her penultimate run at Lingfield is competitive in this field.
Furthermore, she has been dropped another 2lb by the handicapper, putting her on a mark of 52—her lowest yet. With the anticipated lack of pace likely to inconvenience the hold-up horses like Crimson Rambler, Frankali looks well-handicapped to capitalize on a soft lead or a box-seat run.
Best Bet:
FRANKALI EW if you can get 3 places