The market for this Class 4 handicap is dominated by Hamlets Night, currently trading as the 15/8 favourite. While James Owen has improved the horse significantly over hurdles—evidenced by a competitive second in Grade 2 company at Wincanton—his flat mark of 76 leaves little margin for error. He has not raced on the flat since his French days, and taking such a short price about a horse transitioning codes in a handicap of this nature looks statistically inefficient.
A far more interesting proposition at the prices is GOLDEN CIRCET. The six-year-old caught the eye considerably over this course and distance just 14 days ago. On that occasion, the HorseRaceBase run comments note that he was “waiting for room going well 2f out” before staying on strongly to finish third, beaten only a length. Timeform analysis highlights that he hit an in-running low of under half his Betfair SP, confirming visually that he was arguably the moral winner had the gap opened sooner.
The pace setup today appears ideal for his hold-up style. Timeform’s pace forecast suggests a “solid pace,” with Solarize, Selenic, and possibly Desert Heart likely to dispute the early running. This contested lead should stretch the field and prevent the tactical affair that often blunts the chances of rear-runners at Kempton.
Furthermore, Golden Circet is proven on the “Standard to Slow” surface he faces tonight. His speed figure from the last run (68.6) is competitive in this field, particularly given he was checked in his run. He runs off the same mark of 76 today, and with the likelihood of a strong gallop to aim at, he offers significant value against a favourite whose price relies heavily on hurdles form translating directly to the all-weather.
BEST BET:
GOLDEN CIRCET EW