The market is seemingly relying on history repeating itself with Shallow, who won this corresponding race twelve months ago off the same mark of 77. However, her recent profile is uninspiring; her latest effort at Newcastle yielded a modest speed figure of 73.5 (HRB), and she faces a deeper field today. With the Timeform pace forecast predicting a “Strong” tempo, the race may set up perfectly for a closer rather than those ridden prominently.
AMAZONIAN DREAM looks the value play at current odds (8/1).
His latest performance at Lingfield (7th Feb) was significantly better than the bare form suggests. In a race where the finishing speed was brisk, he was held up in rear but finished to excellent effect, clocking a solid last-run speed figure of 83.9 according to HorseRaceBase data. The run comment notes he “ran on final 110yds, took second close home,” and Timeform’s individual price hint highlights that he traded at 25% or less of his BSP in-running, indicating he was arguably unlucky not to win.
Crucially, the setup at Kempton should suit him better. While the inside draw is usually favoured here, the presence of aggressive front-runners like Merrimack and Ziggy’s Condor suggests a burn-up is likely. Amazonian Dream, who has been held up in three of his last six starts, possesses the strongest late kick in the field. His HRB “Average All” speed rating of 77.2 is the highest in the line-up, and his “Max All” of 97.92 demonstrates a back-class ceiling that none of his rivals can match.
He competes off a mark of 76 today, 1lb lower than his last winning mark (Kempton, 2024). Given that he is hitting peak speed figures just as he drops to a dangerous handicap mark, he represents a high-efficiency bet against a vulnerable favourite.
Al Barez is also noted from Stall 1. He was denied a clear run over this C&D last month (“waiting for room… switched right”, HRB) and is well-handicapped on old form, but preference is for the superior recent speed figures of Amazonian Dream.